The relationship between economic growth and taxation: an empirical study on optimal taxation in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

The relationship between economic growth and taxation is a complex and highly debated issue, this thesis investigates whether a significant relationship can be identified, and whether it is the level that truly matters for fiscal policies aimed at being growth enhancing. Further investigation examines this relationship, in addition to testing whether there is a threshold below which tax collection may be considered 'growth-enhancing', and above which is negative for economic growth, and if such a threshold exists, to identify the manner in which taxation negatively impacts economic growth. The study makes use of a panel data approach to autoregressive distributed lag modelling and a generalised least squares regression. The study focuses on a panel data sample for seven (7) countries within Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) between 1997 "“ 2017. It found that total tax revenue held a positive and significant relationship with economic growth at the SSA level, whilst at the individual tax level; PAYE and property taxes were found to have a negative influence on growth, with no other fiscal variables significantly influencing growth in the long run in SSA test. Whereas, when analysing at the country-specific level it was found PAYE was only significantly influencing growth in South Africa, where the relationship was found to be negative. Corporate tax revealed a similar significant negative relationship in Swaziland and Cameroon. In addition, property taxes revealed a significant and negative relationship in South Africa, yet in Rwanda the influence was positive. Overall, the study found that there is significant relationship between economic growth and taxation in the SSA context. However, when analysing the countries in isolation, no such relationship was found.