The effect of interest rates on investment spending: an empirical analysis of South Africa

Abstract

This thesis investigates the nature and strength of the relationship between short-, medium-, and long-term real interest rates and capital investment spending at both the aggregate and disaggregate levels in South Africa in order to determine whether changes in the real interest rate affect the level of capital investment in the economy. This thesis used quarterly data for the period 1987 to 2013. VAR modelling, variance decompositions, impulse response functions and Granger causality tests are used to explore the nature and strength of the relationship between interest rates and investment spending. It is found that interest rates explain very little of the variation in investment spending and seem to have little impact on investment (of any type). Furthermore, short-, medium- and long-term interest rates have different effects on the level of investment spending. A rise in short-term interest rates appears to decrease the level of investment spending in the long-run, whereas a rise in long-term interest rates results in an increase in investment.